Food for Thought: How close is a draw???

[al Furqaan]

so we have 6 sessions or 180 overs remaining. a draw is almost impossible for any team, and with 3 top order retards, it will be unthinkable for us to do any more than score 350-400 runs in the 4th innings.

this game isn't "close" despite our fightbacks, but the reality of slow improvements are there. there is at least a fightback in every match. and since our team, up to very recently, did not fight except rarely, it is impossible, and not merely unrealistic that we will all of a sudden start to win test matches.

as andrew miller said, if this was the US Open, england would be ahead 2 sets to 1, and although his take on the first 2 "games" is accurate at 6-0 and 6-1, his crediting england with a 5-7 loss today, does Bangladesh a slight disservice. i'd say it was more like 6-3, Bangladesh, maybe 6-4. the fact that we're down 430+ is due to the first two sets, and that should not influence the scoring of the third set. but that is just a side matter. i digress...

back to the topic at hand, we are improving, and for us to start being truly competitive in test cricket, it may take another 10 years. but the pieces of a fighting unit are coming together, with several pieces still to be found.

but let us examine the Siddons and pre-Siddons era.

in the pre-Siddons era, we had just one "decent" batsman, Bashar, who averaged just over 32 with the bat. next was SN who averaged a touch under 28 and Rajin who had a bit more than 27. Ash was fourth, with slightly less than 26. JO and Aftab round out the top 10 averages with 22 and 21 respectively.

source: click here

now a few points to be made:

a) when JO and Aftab are in your top 10 averages, with low twenties, it says something about the quality of your batting lineup.

b) many of the players were newbs, and thus we should pick an equidistant time from Siddons' appointment to see the most accurate scenario of our Test batting.

c) the average of our top 10 Test averages is 24.86 runs per innings. (all stats include all matches against Zimbabwe).

stats for 2 years, 2 months immediately before Siddons

the above link will show our situation just before Siddons came to compare with our current status.

Ash, surprsingly leads the averages with over 33. SN just under 30, rajin next. Bashar drops to fourth with a poor average of just 24+.

The average of our top 10 averages now falls to 23.20

Now for the Siddons era, of 2 years and 2 months aproximately (excluding WI and ZIM minnows):

Riyad leads the way with an average of 65.50
Tamim has 33.16
Shakib 31.43
Mushy 29.75
Ash is at 10th with an average of 17.24

the average of the top 9 averages (excluding razzak who inexplicably averages more than Tamim) is 26.40.

There is an overal, most immediate improvement of 3.2 runs per innings per top order batsmen. While this sounds trivial, it adds up 25 runs more to an innings total that before. What is also skewing the stats is that outside the top 4 batters, the bottom dwellers (Ash, Aftab, Junaid, et al) are still averaging the same as the old celler dwellers (JO, Aftab, et al).

So when you see that our top 4 all average 30 or more, it raises our profile a lot higher.

But again, we see that the bottom guys have not improved at all, and are dragging us down as dead weights.

Now lets compare the Top 8 teams vs each other and NOT minnows from 2000-2009 (source)

Australia Top 9 average = 50.71
India Top 8 average = 44.06 (sehfag first, tendy only 46 avg).
South Africa Top 8 average = 43.81 (kallis behind ponting, hussey, yousaf, and tilakaratne)
England Top 9 average = 46.37
Pakistan Top 6 average = 45.24
Sri Lanka Top 7 average = 43.15
New Zealand Top 8 average = 37.92
West Indies Top 9 average = 36.38

Top 7 teams (excludes West Indies) vs Each Other - Best Batting Averages

from the above, for the most recent 2 years, we see that while many batsman are averaging 60+ (samarweera/ghambir over 70, jayawardene, younis, sehfag, amla over 60, de villiers, sanga, laxman, tendy, dilshan, clarke, smith, ross taylor all over 50), the overall number of batsman averaging 50 is roughly the same as 2000-2009 as a decade. furthermore, the 50th best average is signficantly lower than the 2000-2009 decade's 50th average.

[yaseer]

Nice work AF. Thanks for the interesting stats.

About the thread question - "How close is a draw???" - We all know it is out of scenario. It will be difficult for us to take it to the 5th day. It will be interesting to see whether we can score another 303 runs. Then it will be equal to the England's 1st innings score of 599. If we cannot, then it will be as same as an innings defeat. Thanks to Cook that the record book is going to mention it differently.

[al Furqaan]

Our Siddons era Stats Source

[al Furqaan]

Originally Posted by yaseer
Nice work AF. Thanks for the interesting stats.

About the thread question - "How close is a draw???" - We all know it is out of scenario. It will be difficult for us to take it to the 5th day. It will be interesting to see whether we can score another 303 runs. Then it will be equal to the England's 1st innings score of 599. If we cannot, then it will be as same as an innings defeat. Thanks to Cook that the record book is going to mention it differently.

actaully i forgot to address teh title of the thread.

and i will show you how close a draw would have been or is.

lets assume that we can bat out 4 sessions on this flat pitch to draw the match. big assumption i know.

since there are 6 sessions left, that leaves 2 sessions to account for. and here's how.

Junaid, Sakib, Aftab, and Imrul combined for just 13 runs. take sakib out of the equation since he's part of the big 5 (and is bound to fail after 87 and 100 in his previous two innings - if the law of averages didn't exist tendulkar and bradman would average infinity).

Three top order bats combined for 12 runs and faced just 32 deliveries. Now lets suppose each batsman faced a modest number of balls each, just 60 deliveries. That would give us 180 extra balls, or a total of 148 more than we have now. which is almost 25 overs. which given england has 3 pacers is pretty muhc a full session.

if you bat one session more, the opposition will need about one session more in order to get into the same match situation. and actually more. but since england scores faster, lets call it even stevens at one session + one more session to equalize.

there are your 2 sessions missing, and there is a credible scenario to draw a match.

[Rifat]

If we can bat for Four sessions...

[Rifat]

Originally Posted by al Furqaan
Our Siddons era Stats Source

Mohammad Ashraful at the bottom of the table 0_0

[yaseer]

Originally Posted by al Furqaan

since there are 6 sessions left, that leaves 2 sessions to account for. and here's how.
.............

AF bhai, we can scenarios and hope, but, what is practical?

If I have stats, then I would love to figure out how many balls per innings in average our batsmen faced in their FC career, forget about Test career. I am not sure whether it will make 4+ sessions.

[Fazal]

1st thing first:

We either need finish ENG by 1 hours, or force them play the whole 1st session plus more if possible.

Then we cannot lose more than two wickets at the end of the day.

Until then there is no point to even talk about the possibility of a draw.

[offstump]

we need rajshahi team to bat, the can bat 5 sessions... ....

any way looks like england may try not to bat more than 1 session and have 5 sessions of bowl... ...

so we have to survive 5 sessions... ... ...

if BD somehow thinks they have a chance of win, they wont be patient they will lookf for win from the way go and will lose. if they think win is not possible and we should draw.... .... then its possible to draw.

[offstump]

we have to go into the 5th day with 8 wicket is hand

[FagunerAgun]

A draw is even not in the distant horizon.

[chol_bd123]

a draw is impossible for our team. There is a higher chance for us to win then a draw

[wiseshah]

Draw is a dream

Posted via BC Mobile Edition

[al Furqaan]

you are all mistaken...the thread is not predictive of whether a draw will happen or not, it wont.

the thread is attempting to show how close a draw is from this match situation. if 3 top order bats faced just 60 overs each, it could have been in the offing. of course 4 sessions would have to be batted, but this chittagong pitch stays flat throughout.

[shovon13]

a win may be more plausible than a draw.

[IanW]

A draw is three sessions away, with five wickets in hand.

Likely ? No. Possible, yes.

[Tigers_eye]

Dear Al,
We are not close to a draw at all. With players like Shahadat, Raj and Aftab in the team we can't play 7/8 against 12. That is a mismatch big time. We can't draw with this line up.

How hard it is to make seperate teams for ODIs and Test? < BCB???

[Ananna]

draw is zillion miles away....

[offstump]

draw is 3 sessions away. and we have 4 wickets of fuel left

[Miraz]

It is way too far in Chittagong and not possible. However, a draw should be achievable in Dhaka. So, it's not that far.

[SMHasan]

I was wondering what would happen if we had 7 wickets in hand instead of 5? Would be so nice you know.

Anyways, my dream of beating the English people in a test match is yet to be true....

[kalpurush]

Originally Posted by SMHasan
I was wondering what would happen if we had 7 wickets in hand instead of 5? Would be so nice you know.

Anyways, my dream of beating the English people in a test match is yet to be true....

It could be 6 wickets in hand instead of 5, but umpire () ...refused to be like that ^^^

[ahms]

It is just a miracle away and miracle do happens.

[simon]

my dula bhai is very optimistic abt the tigers,he told me BD will draw & JS-Mushy both will get 100s probably & survive for long engh.
But I think we will be allout in short time as it's going to be a new start with a new ball.

[tipu009]

8.00pm Andrew Miller, in Chittagong, has just told us that it's raining in Dhaka and the rain is headed his way. In fact, he's just seen lightning from his hotel room window! Could England be thwarted by the weather? Join us tomorrow to find out. (Source)

[auntu]

I'm very optimistic about a draw. Only if Big z can score a double ton and Mushy score a ton and a fifty by Naeem....
Too big dream? Well here's the recipe: Link

[AsifTheManRahman]

Let it rain let it rain let it rain. Let this game get washed out.

And then we can draw the one in Dhaka and tie the series!

[BD-Shardul]

I want non-stop rain after England take the 9th wicket. They should get their own medicine that they applied to Oz and SA.

[SMHasan]

Originally Posted by AsifTheManRahman
Let it rain let it rain let it rain. Let this game get washed out.

And then we can draw the one in Dhaka and tie the series!

No. I don't want rain. I want a sunny day so that we try to save this match by learning how to survive.

[offstump]

so......... two more sessions to go....

[IanW]

A draw is now two sessions away.

[auntu]

It was a great effort by the Tigers.
Insha'Allah next time.

[BANFAN]

A draw is as far as a slowest partnership record & a victiory was as far as Mushi & Junaid making it to a bigger centuries & two other guys reaching good 50s

[offstump]

it was 3 hours away

after junaid-mushy partnership broken, we did not get another decent partnership. if we ... ...

[SMHasan]

Originally Posted by offstump
it was 3 hours away

after junaid-mushy partnership broken, we did not get another decent partnership. if we ... ...

The work was half done. Yet again so near but so far!

Eventually we will get there. May be in Dhaka!

[offstump]

Originally Posted by SMHasan
The work was half done. Yet again so near but so far!

Eventually we will get there. May be in Dhaka!

if not Dhaka then may be at lords or old trafford later this year

[SMHasan]

Originally Posted by offstump
if not Dhaka then may be at lords or old trafford later this year

Ah! Lords! There we will make history! But before then we will deny the English in Mirpur.