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  #1  
Old April 8, 2007, 10:20 PM
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tarikur tarikur is offline
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Default Semi-Final Calculations and Scenarios

Here is how Bangladesh can go to the the Semi-finals. Basically, Australia, New Zealand and Sri Lanka already made it to semi-finals, the competition for the fourth team for the semi-final is between England, South Africa, West Indies and Bangladesh.

Currently, England, South Africa, West Indies and Bangladesh all played 4 games. Currently, England, West Indies and Bangladesh are tied with 2 points and South Africa has 4 points which means they have 1 game win and 2 points more than us.

Here are the crucial games that we have to watch.

England v Bangladesh
West Indies v Bangladesh
Bangladesh v Ireland
South Africa v England
West Indies v England
West Indies v South Africa
South Africa v New Zealand

Here is how it will work in order tfor Bangladesh to make it to the semi-finals

If Bangladesh wins all three games, Bangladesh will get 8 points.

- England and West Indies will be out, definitely. It is not possible for them to make it to the semi-finals because highest they can have is 6 points. Even if they win other two games, it won't matter if Bangladesh win against them.

Scenario 1) South Africa loses all 3 games, South Africa will end up with 4 point. Bangldesh will definitely semi-finals.

South Africa loses 2 games, South Africa will end up with 6 point. Bangldesh will definitely semi-finals. Here are Scenarios
Scenario 2) South Africa lose to Zealand and England
Scenario 3) South Africa lose to Zealand and West Indies
Scenario 4) South Africa lose to England and West Indies (note, it won't matter if England and West Indies win because highest point they can have is 6)

Scenario 5) South Africa lose 1 games, Sri Lanka lose 2 games. It won't matter what team South Africa or Sri Lanka loses against. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa and Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Scenario 6) South Africa lose 1 games and Sri Lanka win all games . It won't matter what team South Africa loses against. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa and Bangladesh.

Scenario 7) South Africa win all games and Sri Lanka lose 2 games, New Zealand lose 2 games. New-Zealand has to lose against Australia and South Africa, It won't matter what team Sri Lanka loses against. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between New Zealand, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Scenario 8) South Africa win all games and Sri Lanka lose 2 games, It won't matter what team Sri Lanka loses against. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Scenario 9) South Africa win all games and New Zealand lose 2 games. It won't matter what team New Zealand loses against. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between New Zealand and Bangladesh.

Scenario 10) South Africa win all games and Australia loses all games. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between Australia and Bangladesh.

If Bangladesh lose 1 games, Bangladesh will get 6 points.

Scenario 11) ) Bangladesh loses against England. South Africa loses to New Zealand, West Indies and England. West Indies has to win against England. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between England and Bangladesh.

Scenario 12) Bangladesh loses against England. South Africa has to lose against New Zealand and England and if win against West Indies. England has to lose against West Indies. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa, England and Bangladesh.

Scenario 13) Bangladesh loses against England. South Africa has to lose against New Zealand and West Indies and if win against England. England win against West Indies. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa, England and Bangladesh.

Scenario 14) Bangladesh loses against England. South Africa has to lose against New Zealand and West Indies and if win against England. England lose against West Indies. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa, West Indies and Bangladesh.

Scenario 15) Bangladesh loses against West Indies. South Africa loses against New Zealand, England West Indies. England has to win against West Indies. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between West Indies and Bangladesh.
.
Scenario 16) Bangladesh loses against West Indies. South Africa has to lose against New Zealand and West Indies and if win against England. West Indies has to lose against England. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa, West Indies and Bangladesh.

Scenario 17) Bangladesh loses against West Indies. South Africa has to lose against New Zealand and England and if win against West Indies. West Indies win against England. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa, West Indies and Bangladesh.

Scenario 18) Bangladesh loses against West Indies. South Africa has to lose against New Zealand and England and if win against West Indies. West Indies lose against England. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa, England and Bangladesh.

Scenario 19) Bangladesh loses against Ireland. South Africa lose to New Zealand and England and West Indies. West Indies has win against England. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between West Indies and Bangladesh.

Scenario 20) Bangladesh loses against Ireland. South Africa lose to New Zealand and England and West Indies. West Indies has lose against England. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between England and Bangladesh.

Scenario 21) Bangladesh loses against Ireland. South Africa lose to New Zealand and England and win against West Indies. England loses against West Indies. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa and Bangladesh.

Scenario 22) Bangladesh loses against Ireland. South Africa lose to New Zealand and England and win against West Indies. England win against West Indies. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa, England and Bangladesh.

Scenario 23) Bangladesh loses against Ireland. South Africa lose to New Zealand and West Indies and win against England. West Indies loses against England. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa and Bangladesh.

Scenario 24) Bangladesh loses against Ireland. South Africa lose to New Zealand and West Indies and win against England. West Indies win against England. Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa, West Indies and Bangladesh.

Scenario 25) Bangladesh loses against one team, could be any team. South Afica has to lose against New Zealand and West Indies or England or both. Sri Lanka loses all their games Who-ever has the better run-rate will go on between South Africa, West Indies and Bangladesh.

Bangladesh can't Lose 2 games. It is impossible for Bangladesh to advance if they lose 2 games

Final Note:
So my Friends, scenario 1-3 are best scenarios. Bangladesh has to win all games and South Africa has to lose at least 2 games. Remember, Bangladesh has very bad run-rate, if it come down to run-rate, Bangladesh more likely not to have the best and not make it to the semi-final. So do not go for run-rate scenarios.

Last edited by tarikur; April 8, 2007 at 11:04 PM..
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  #2  
Old April 8, 2007, 10:26 PM
betaar betaar is offline
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I did not have the patience to read the whole thing but found an error in the first line of the 2nd paragraph. Bangladesh did not play 4 games in the super eights, they played only 3 (which means your predictions or calculations may not be correct based on this flaw). They are yet to play Eng, Ire and WI.
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Old April 8, 2007, 10:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by betaar
I did not have the patience to read the whole thing but found an error in the first line of the 2nd paragraph. Bangladesh did not play 4 games in the super eights, they played only 3 (which means your predictions or calculations may not be correct based on this flaw). They are yet to play Eng, Ire and WI.
The Game with Sri lanka Carries over the super8, looks like front page stuff just have to read it now
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  #4  
Old April 8, 2007, 10:39 PM
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They are too many scenarios at the moment. I think we should wait until we beat England. One thing we know for sure, bangladesh has to win the remaining three games. If lose any one game, then we have to depend on other teams to lose some games and runrate is very bad... so we will most likely lose out on runrate in this scenario.

So win all three games!!!!!
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  #5  
Old April 8, 2007, 10:47 PM
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Nice work. And this shows how complicated it is at this moment...too many ifs and buts. So what I say is, lets wait and see when there are lesser ifs and buts.

West Indies and England are most likely done. We just have to perform to our max and get these two out of the way. It's not gonna be easy, but it's doable...and we've done enough to make it sound absolutely doable.
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  #6  
Old April 8, 2007, 10:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by betaar
I did not have the patience to read the whole thing but found an error in the first line of the 2nd paragraph. Bangladesh did not play 4 games in the super eights, they played only 3 (which means your predictions or calculations may not be correct based on this flaw). They are yet to play Eng, Ire and WI.
In cricket, if you are the group stage leader, you gain 2 points which counts as you won 1 game. Therefore, Sri Lanka was our group stage leader, they gain 2 points as like they won 1 game against Bangladesh and since Bangladesh was not group stage leader, it counts as Bangladesh lost a game against Sri Lanka.

Look at BBC Cricket Tables.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/cric...es/default.stm

It clearlys Bangladesh played 4 games: lost 3 games and won 1 game.

I hope this helps.
Tarikur
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  #7  
Old April 8, 2007, 10:53 PM
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tonoy tonoy is offline
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great thread. I too was actually calculating the odds. For now im just hoping for more south africa and srilanka loss.
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  #8  
Old April 8, 2007, 10:56 PM
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also a note that an Ireland win against any opponent except us, New zeland and Australia is a great plus. Also australia must win all matches and Newzeland win all matches except australia. This will make things much more interesting and give bangladesh more hope.
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  #9  
Old April 8, 2007, 10:57 PM
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Bangladesh has the advantage that they have already played against Aus, NZ, SL, SA - the top 4 of the tournament.
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  #10  
Old April 8, 2007, 11:00 PM
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it's expecting too much of our tigers to put us thru to semis, two big wins is more than enough for me. keep your expectations low
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  #11  
Old April 8, 2007, 11:00 PM
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Super effort tarikur...wonderful analysis...i am sure we will be in the semis, we will win all the three matches...and who knows may be the world cup is ours...i like scenario 1-3 too, i actually read upto that only
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  #12  
Old April 8, 2007, 11:26 PM
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The precondition in every scenario is; BD winning all the three games (Eng, WI, Irl). If Bangladesh can make it, wheather BD goes to semis or not; they will shine more than the cup winners. And This world cup will be remembered for BD not for the cup winners.

We have the ability to do that if our players remain focussed and consistent. I am optimistic
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Old April 8, 2007, 11:29 PM
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Good Work, but semi-finals are going to be very difficult. We need the pitches to suit our spin bowlers.
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  #14  
Old April 9, 2007, 12:30 AM
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Good work tarikur.
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Old April 9, 2007, 12:31 AM
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Triqur vai, ki khia eita likhlen? Amarey bolen. Shamney porikha asey...........boroi upokar hoi..........
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Old April 9, 2007, 12:43 AM
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Let me put it simply.
If Bangladesh wins all 3 matches and SA wins 2 of the 3, both BD and SA will have 8pts.
ENG and WI can have the at most 6 pts if they lose to BD.
So for the 4th spot it will be SA vs BD ( both with 8 pts ). Since head to head BD beat SA, BD will go thru. (RR calculation comes into play when 3 or more teams with the same pts are involved).
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Old April 9, 2007, 12:46 AM
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Have to say tarikur has put in a lot of effort into this thread. Thanks for giving us all the different scenarios.

I just hope that the easiest scenario takes place with the Tigers. BD team goes on to win all the remaining matches and SA loses to NZ and any other team. lets hope for the best.

Go Bangladesh!!!!
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  #18  
Old April 9, 2007, 12:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djuice
Let me put it simply.
If Bangladesh wins all 3 matches and SA wins 2 of the 3, both BD and SA will have 8pts.
ENG and WI can have the at most 6 pts if they lose to BD.
So for the 4th spot it will be SA vs BD ( both with 8 pts ). Since head to head BD beat SA, BD will go thru. (RR calculation comes into play when 3 or more teams with the same pts are involved).
I don't think so, but I might be wrong. SA could go on to have a better NRR than BD even after 8 pts, that will get them through not BD. If SA and BD both land up with the same points, BD will need to have a better NRR.
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Old April 9, 2007, 12:58 AM
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Thanks a lot to Tarikur for your hard working. Your analysis about the semis is nice.

But I think that we will not expect a lot (winning all the 3 matches) from our team…we need to think match by match. First of all we need a win against England…then we can think a little about the semis. If our boys can defeat Windies or Englad…that will be enough for this World cup…I think…and I will be very much happy in that point. But in 2011, definitely we will fight for semis or even final spot.
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Old April 9, 2007, 01:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CricFanBD
Thanks a lot to Tarikur for your hard working. Your analysis about the semis is nice.

But I think that we will not expect a lot (winning all the 3 matches) from our team…we need to think match by match. First of all we need a win against England…then we can think a little about the semis. If our boys can defeat Windies or Englad…that will be enough for this World cup…I think…and I will be very much happy in that point. But in 2011, definitely we will fight for semis or even final spot.
Are we taking IRE, win by default?
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  #21  
Old April 9, 2007, 01:55 AM
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I'll start thinking about scenarios when we beat England. If we can do that, I'm sure cricket professionals and analysts worldwide will also start coming up with different scenarios where we can make it to semis. So let's pray and see.
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Old April 9, 2007, 02:01 AM
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Hard work man..
But what if BD looses to England & West Indies? ( I dont even wanna think of losing to Ireland )..
Anyway we can just hope.. there are certainity..
Lets hope we make it..if not end up good.
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  #23  
Old April 9, 2007, 03:38 AM
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wheather we reach there or not, Tariqur deserves appreciation for his great work. May b, its more unlikely we reach there, but keeping these facts in mind always help the team. Had we restrict them earlier, we wud get a chance of damaging their NRR and improving ours. It is not impossible, we getting into a situation where NRR comes to consideration
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Old April 9, 2007, 04:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BANFAN
Are we taking IRE, win by default?
Not by default..but I have full confidence on that.
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Old April 9, 2007, 04:19 AM
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I Think We Should Revise This Calculation Before Ireland Match. Because We have to Win 3 Matches. 2 are against Test Team. After SA Match We are Expecting Bangladesh to beat England and West Indies. Let Them Do It at first than We should Think about The Semi-Final.

Good Luck Bangladesh.
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