Bangladesh drowning: A reality or a myth?

[Niceman70]

Bangladesh drowning: A reality or a myth?
Faruque Hasan

Once again Bangladesh has been made the worst example, this time of the impacts of global warming. It is being said, one-third of Bangladesh will go under seawater in next 50 years due to the sea level rise being caused by the climate change. Drowning of Bangladesh is now a hot topic in the international arena.

No denying that a great part of Bangladesh, the largest delta in the world, is low lying, very usual for a delta. But when we talk of the impacts of global warming on Bangladesh, we must not forget or ignore the fact that it's a dynamic delta and its landmass is still growing, at the same time the land being raised by gradual deposition of silt.

Due to global warming, to which the contribution of Bangladesh is minimal, the rate of local relative sea level rise is 7 mm a year around the coastal areas of the country. An alarming trend indeed for the future, but this is only the one side of the coin. The other side is that the average sediment accumulation rate for the last few hundred years in the coastal areas of Bangladesh is 5-6 mm a year. What we see is that the sea level rises 7 mm/year and the land rises 5-6 mm/year; it means the relative sea level rise in the coastal areas of Bangladesh is 1-2 mm/year. The elevation of the Barisal town, which stands only at a distance of about 90 kilometers from the coastline, is 3 meters above Mean Sea Level. So to reach up to Barisal town level, the sea will take 1,000 (one thousand) years, if its level rises at 3 mm/year. This is one aspect of the picture; and the other aspect is that the coastline of Bangladesh is not static, rather progressing outward due to the fact that tremendous amount of silt being deposited on the shore in the Meghna estuary, causing land accretion.

Each year about 2.4 billion tons of sediment from the Himalayas is carried by the rivers of Bangladesh to the Bay of Bengal, and deposited on the continental shelf causing accretion of land to the coast of the country. The high sediment load results in a net accretion of about 35 square kilometers of land per year to Bangladesh.

Satellite pictures say of new land measuring no less than 20,000 (twenty thousand) square kilometers being formed in the Bay of Bengal in the coastal zones of Bangladesh.

Inhabitants on our coastal islands, Neejhum Deep, Char Kukrimukri, Char Jabbar etc, know that how every year new shoals in our coastal zones are coming up, and how the water is getting more and more shallow between these shoals. We know Bangladesh has been formed over tens of thousands of years through the settling down of sediment on the bed of the Bay. Only about three thousand years back one of our seaports was near Gopalganj in Faridpur district. We can see how far the coastline of our country has extended during the last three millennia.

Unfortunately, the land formation at the western coastal zone of the country has almost stopped due to the presence of the Swath of no Ground with a depth of more than 200 fathoms, which starts a few kilometers south of the Sundarbans forest coastline. The depth of the sea at our coast is five to ten fathoms. This Swath of no Ground swallows up the sediment load carried out to the Bay by the rivers thus hindering new land formation in this coastal zone. But the central and eastern regions of our coast are very active in terms of formation of new lands as these dynamic regions are shallow in depth.

Certainly global warming is a great threat not only to Bangladesh, but to the whole world; and we must fight against this threat hand in hand with rest of the world. We must make all our efforts to stop further warming up of the global climate, and then get it cooling down; but we, the people of Bangladesh, must not lend our ear to those painting a very gloomy picture saying Bangladesh is going to be the worst effected country, whose one-third or a big part will go under sea due to global warming in next 50 years.

Some people and organisations are always ready to paint a gloomy picture of Bangladesh. They make our country as the worst example of any bad consequence or situation. As a result the country has earned a very bad image in the international arena. This bad image directly hampers our economic progress.

They invariably utter the phrase, 'the poorest country in the world.' On the list of the countries of the world sorted by their Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which has been prepared by the IMF, Bangladesh stands 58th with GDP to the tune of USD 64,854 million among 180 countries. On the same sort of list prepared by the World Bank, Bangladesh stands at 56th among 183 countries. Again, on the three lists of the countries sorted by their GDP on the basis of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which have been prepared by IMF, World Bank and CIA, Bangladesh ranks at 33, 49, and 31 respectively among 179, 145 and 227 countries; how come Bangladesh is the poorest country in the world?

Due to the bad image of the country, we receive minimal foreign direct and indirect investments. For the same cause we receive virtually no tourist, though these days tourism is the number one global export item, and our country can be the haven of ecotourism. (Tourism earns foreign exchange for a country, so it is considered as an export.)

Some of us may join the chorus that say Bangladesh is drowning due to global warming with the hope of getting some aid for the country from the rich countries by evoking sympathy in them. What we need is not such dole money, but investment and tourism to make big strides forward in our economic progress. Seeking aid or dole money does not go with the sense of self-dignity.

At this moment our serious problem is not the rising of the sea level, but the explosion of population. Due to population explosion people of our country are compelled to live near the coast, on the newly formed shoals, and lose their lives helplessly when a cyclone or a tidal surge hits the coast.

Two centuries back European countries were suffering from population boom. Fortunately for them the excess people of those countries had the opportunity to migrate, in big number, to the 'new lands' like America, Australia, and Latin America. Nowadays the scope of migration in big number has ceased. So we have no other way, but to control the population explosion.

The other day a fish vendor told me, his grand fathers were two brothers, his father and uncles were four, and now his brothers and cousins are 28 in number. What a scaring picture of population explosion!

Some people term our annual flood as dreadful, but it is not indeed. The flood makes our soil fertile for better harvest, raises the land up gradually by millimeters each year. Otherwise a boon the flood becomes dreadful because the total population of the country is disproportionate to the total area of the land. By population we are the 8th largest nation in the world, by land area, 93rd.

If we can stop the population explosion, we will be able to live keeping safe distance from the coast. When a cyclone hits our costal districts we die in hundreds, our houses get destroyed, because they are made of bamboo and reed. Economic progress will make us able to build our houses high and with brick. Then the storm won't be able to blow us like grass and twigs. We live in a delta, the largest delta in the world, a dynamic delta growing bigger and higher; we must know how to live in safety and with dignity.

There's the glaring example of the Netherlands in front of us. About half of the land area in the Netherlands lies at or below sea level. The Dutch built dikes around swampy or flooded land and then pumped the water out. Several major rivers of Europe flow through the Netherlands into the sea. The country has few natural resources, and its lands are poor for agriculture. But the Dutch have struggled to make their country one of the wealthiest in the world.


Faruque Hasan is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.

St. Martin Island, Bangladesh
The man is standing on a land in Bangladesh which is a result of silt that was deposited years back and now a land.


Surfing in Cox bazaar, Bangladesh

[nafees_mashrafee]

yeah i was just gonna post the link, but u beat me to it. very interesting article. different from the common rap.

[Orpheus]

Originally Posted by nafees_mashrafee
yeah i was just gonna post the link, but u beat me to it. very interesting article.

yup, well written!

[One World]

Reality not a myth.

[shaad]

A few issues are not covered in this otherwise well-written report. Keep in mind, though, that I am not a geologist or climate expert, just someone thinking about this issue.

First, there is an assumption in this article that sea levels will continue to rise at the same steady rate, 7mm/year, leading to a relative but easily manageable increase of 1 mm/year. However, there are a body of climatologists who expect the rate of sea level increase to accelerate as ice sheets begin to disintegrate in a rapid, non-linear fashion on West Antarctica, Greenland or both (there are multiple positive feedback effects besides just basic greenhouse warming that could come into play to increase this rate, e.g. reduction in the earth's albedo, i.e. reflectivity; increase in vegetation at higher altitudes; surfaces of ice sheets at lower, warmer altitudes, causing increased melting, etc.) and it would have been appropriate for the writer to consider these issues.

Second, the writer's expectation of a relative increase of 1 mm/year is based on silt (alluvial soil) continuing to be deposited at the same rate by our river system. However, he enters into no discussion whatsoever of how the rate of flow of our river system, and thus the rate of deposit of silt, will be affected by climate changes brought about by global warming (e.g. change in levels of precipitation), geological changes (e.g. amount of snow in the Himalyas) and geopolitical reality (e.g. barrages/dams and canals built by our neighbours that could choke off the flow of water and thus silt coming down our delta.)

Third, there is no discussion of the effect of salination brought about by rising sea water. Alluvial soil is fertile indeed, but that fertility will not help rice or other crops grow in salt water. Already, several farmers along the coast have shifted to cultivating marine shrimp instead. And our freshwater based mangrove forests in the Sundarbans are already at risk.

Finally, I am a scientist by inclination and training, not a pessimist. That means, among other things, that we prefer not to wait for a full-blown problem to actually land in our laps before scrambling to find a solution. We would much rather consider the potential problems and risks of any situation beforehand and begin to devise solutions before they become a full-blown crisis. If an accelerated rise in sea-levels does occur, I believe we Bangladeshis, as a people, will be able to meet the challenge. But make no mistake, the situation will be considerably different and more difficult than that which faced the Dutch. It will require planning, and one hopes that at least some people in our government are actually thinking about it, not dismissing it out of hand as the writer appears to do as an attempt to get foreign aid.

[Tigers_eye]

Shaad bhai,
lok ta ray emon baash disen... Apnar post'a jodi email kora jeto... Daily Star'a ekta feedback diya copy paste koray daen.

[shaad]

Tigers eye,

Bash dite chachchhilam na. And I'm not trying to be a pessimist or paranoid either; I just think it's a good idea to look at potential risks in every situation and trying to be prepared for them, instead of having a rosy pollyannaish outlook where one believes nothing can go wrong. I mean, by now, our cricket team should have taught us that, na?


Here's a nice little video discussing the very same issue by a high school science teacher.

[Niceman70]

Originally Posted by shaad
Tigers eye,

Bash dite chachchhilam na. And I'm not trying to be a pessimist or paranoid either; I just think it's a good idea to look at potential risks in every situation and trying to be prepared for them, instead of having a rosy pollyannaish outlook where one believes nothing can go wrong. I mean, by now, our cricket team should have taught us that, na?


Here's a nice little video discussing the very same issue by a high school science teacher.

You are right. We should look at all the risks but not by telling the whole world Bangladesh will be drowned. He is not denying the fact that we are at risk but what he is saying is that portraying bad image of Bangladesh is not going to help because we might receive some donations but then what are those donations going to do? Instead we should have different approach to this problem and at the same time keep the image good so that we have more investments coming in. We can only fight these problems when we are economically strong country. He is not telling us facts but an assumption so is the case for those who advocates about global warming that it is not fact but an assumption and it is slowly becoming a fact. Now, from what I understand by reading his article or his point of view is that he is not up for those who portray Bangladesh's image bad and it is true that it is having a bad effect on Bangladesh. The whole world knows that Bangladesh is going to drown in 50-60 years. Now that is scary because I can tell you a true story about one my relative. He happened to be millionaire in NY and he wanted to invest in Bangladesh but even for him being an bengali decided not to go for investments in Bangladesh and it is all because of the drowning reason. It is not always the big investors who can turn a country's economy but also small investors and businesses that can do good for the economy. If you take cricket for example, Mushfiqur Rahim is doing bad but Jimmie Sidon said he is going to be the “golden boy” of Bangladesh cricket. We all know he is just saying this to make him feel good and somehow trying to make his image good to people. He did that with Tamim and Zunaid at the same time sorting their problems. It is very important in this world to be positive and work out your problems at the same time. This is exactly Jimmie Sidon is doing for our cricket and we need to do same for our country. This is the world where only positive wins!

[Bengaliprince176]

The delta region of Bengal is under threat big time, with two mega cities (D and K) among this densely populated area, in 20 years this could have serious implications....there was an apparent article when i visited Kolkata, that investors were not keen to invest long term because of the questionable state of Kolkata and Bengal in 20 years...this was on the backdrop of an American Senator visiting the city to talk about development

[shaad]

A few minor points, Niceman. Note that I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, simply clarifying my own views.

As I said, I thought Hasan's article was well-written. However, I think if one is going to write about the potential increase in sea-levels around Bangladesh, then it behooves one to try to consider the issue from as many perspectives as possible. Hasan's article could easily have left readers with the notion that some people are being alarmist about global warming, and that it is no big deal, at least as far as Bangladesh is concerned. Given that other, more dangerous possibilities (i.e. other than the gradual 1mm/year relative rise) exist, I think not exploring those possibilities or not at least raising them in an article, is being either careless or disingenuous.

Second, we Bangladeshis are not the ones making a fuss about about Bangladesh "drowning". That's simply a point used to illustrate the effect of rising sea-levels in models and Powerpoint presentations by climatologists and Al Gore; other examples of low-lying coastal regions are also used, e.g. the Netherlands and Florida. That said, if the water levels do rise to dangerous levels because of global warming, global warming which was primarily caused by pollution from the industrialized West (and currently also China -- our own footprint is miniscule), then I think it's perfectly valid for us to hold those nations culpable. That's not asking for sympathy; that's pointing to the entities that are to blame.

Now as far as investing in our economy is concerned, I happen to think that most US companies are short-sighted enough to go for short-term profits. In general, and despite the example of your relative that you cite, it hasn't been a fear of sea-levels rising that has prevented corporations from investing in Bangladesh -- it was the hartals, the corruption, the mismanagement and the lack of accountability. Note that we didn't see much foreign investment in Bangladesh in the 70s and 80s, long before global warming became an issue of concern. Note also that despite knowledge of global warming and potential rise in sea-levels, Goldman Sachs didn't have a problem including us in the Next Eleven, a short list of eleven countries considered promising outlooks for investment and future growth.

Again, I'm not saying we shouldn't be positive. But becoming a strong economic nation or attracting investment requires foresight, planning, organization, management and marketing skills, attributes that were woefully lacking in a number of our previous administrations (well, maybe not marketing skills, but they were primarily marketing themselves to the voters). Develop those, and the the foreign exchange and investment will come; blaming artifical strawmen who allegedly complain about global warming won't help one way or another.

And finally, risk assesment and having strategies in place to counter those risks if they turn out to be true, are both, in my opinion, aspects of being positive (in cricket and in real life).

[Sohel]

Great posts Shaad. Thanks.

[Niceman70]

Yup, a stable and predictable government will help to fight these problems. If you get a chance then look at the interview of Dr Yunus on Colbert Show which was aired on January 10, 2008. Dr. Yunus too talks about Bangladesh image.

http://www.comedycentral.com/motherl...&is_large=true