Road to Semis - is it possible?

[mufi_02]

10 teams. 9 matches for each team.

For us to make it to the semis, we need to win at least 6 matches. Anything more than 6 will pretty much ensure a spot in the last 4.

But 6 win is the minimum.

Matches we can't afford to lose (with their current form)
Afghanistan - WLWWL
Sri Lanka - WLLLL
West Indies - LLWLW

Matches we most likely will lose
England - WWWWW
Australia - WWWWW
India - LLLWW

Matches that will determine our chances
Pakistan - LLLLL
New Zealand - WWWLL
South Africa - WWWWW

[Tigers_eye]

What is our head to head with each team? (last 5 matches)

[mufi_02]

Originally Posted by Tigers_eye
What is our head to head with each team? (last 5 matches)

our last few matches

2 wins against WI, 1 win against IRE, 3 losses against NZ.

it will be useless to do head to head (last 5 matches) against each team. We have to go multiple years for 5 matches against many teams. It won't be reflective of the current form and momentum.

[Tigers_eye]

vs Afg 4 - 3
Last 5: - W L W L W

vs Aus 1 - 18
Last 5: - L L L L L

vs Eng 4 -16
Last 5: - L L W L W

vs Ind 5 - 30
Last 5: - L L L L W

vs NZ 10 - 24
Last 5: - L L L W W

vs Pak 5 - 31
Last 5: - W W W W L

vs SA 3 -17
Last 5: - L L L W W

vs SL 7 - 36
Last 5: W L L W L

vs WI 14 -21
Last 5: - W W W W L

[Miraz]

Originally Posted by Tigers_eye
vs Afg 4 - 3
Last 5: - W L W L W

vs Aus 1 - 18
Last 5: - L L L L L

vs Eng 4 -16
Last 5: - L L W L W

vs Ind 5 - 30
Last 5: - L L L L W

vs NZ 10 - 24
Last 5: - L L L W W

vs Pak 5 - 31
Last 5: - W W W W L

vs SA 3 -17
Last 5: - L L L W W

vs SL 7 - 36
Last 5: W L L W L

vs WI 14 -21
Last 5: - W W W W L

A win against Australia, New Zealand and South Africa at the world stage is long overdue for Bangladesh. This will show the true progress.

[Tigers_eye]

Originally Posted by Miraz
A win against Australia, New Zealand and South Africa at the world stage is long overdue for Bangladesh. This will show the true progress.

And we can't drop against Afgs, WI, SL or Pak. We got 7. lol. Semis and dancing.

[Miraz]

Originally Posted by Tigers_eye
And we can't drop against Afgs, WI, SL or Pak. We got 7. lol. Semis and dancing.

I am suggesting 1 win out of the three matches against Aus, SA and NZ. 😊

[NoName]

When does Aus come for an ODI series.... need to adjust that h2h stat lol

[Roey Haque]

Possible, but do we deserve it? Years of complacency with developing players before they finally became decent players, and now if it gets success, management might repeat the strategy. I rather want a consistent team that will perform regularly from now on. Not take fans for granted for the sake of developing a few players and ride them out in their maturation stage like we are doing now.

[sujon]

Do we deserve it?- yes!
Can we do it? - no.

[Night_wolf]

Originally Posted by NoName
When does Aus come for an ODI series.... need to adjust that h2h stat lol

lol Australia have been avoiding ODI series in BD for a long time now

[Night_wolf]

Originally Posted by Tigers_eye
vs Afg 4 - 3
Last 5: - W L W L W

vs Aus 1 - 18
Last 5: - L L L L L

vs Eng 4 -16
Last 5: - L L W L W

vs Ind 5 - 30
Last 5: - L L L L W

vs NZ 10 - 24
Last 5: - L L L W W

vs Pak 5 - 31
Last 5: - W W W W L

vs SA 3 -17
Last 5: - L L L W W

vs SL 7 - 36
Last 5: W L L W L

vs WI 14 -21
Last 5: - W W W W L

vs Afg 4 - 3
Last 5: - W L W L W

very worrisome pattern for our next match

[cricket_king]

I guarantee we will blow it against one of either WI or Afghanistan. Maybe both lol.

[ahnaf]

Mufi bhai, You are giving too much credit to Australia. We can easily beat those fools. Loosers doing everything to avoid playing ODI with us for the last few years.

Only England & India would be hard to beat imo.

[BengaliPagol]

Australia thumped WI in the unofficial WC game yesterday. Aus are going to be semi finalists for sure.

[godzilla]

Originally Posted by Night_wolf
vs Afg 4 - 3
Last 5: - W L W L W

very worrisome pattern for our next match

oh man, how the heck do we have such a bad record against them. All 50 over matches or some T20 in those W/L?

[al Furqaan]

Disagree with the OP's math of 6 wins minimum, unless he's assuming that BD will have a bad net run rate - which is entirely plausible. Here's a potential scenario of final standings before the semifinals:

1) England 8-1 (only loss to India)
2) India 7-2 (losses to Sri Lanka and Australia)
3) Australia 6-3 (losses to England, Pakistan, South Africa)
4) Bangladesh 5-4 (losses to England, India, Australia, New Zealand)

5) New Zealand 5-4 (losses to England, India, Australia, South Africa)
6) South Africa 4-5 (losses to England, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan)
7) Pakistan 4-5 (losses to England, India, Bangladesh, New Zealand, West Indies)
8) Afghanistan 3-6 (wins vs Sri Lanka, West Indies, South Africa)
9) West Indies 2-7 (wins vs Pakistan, Sri Lanka)
10) Sri Lanka 1-8 (only win vs India)

The only upsets in this setting are:

SL beating India (happened in 2017 CT)
PAK beating Australia
BD beating South Africa
AFG beating South Africa
WI beating Pakistan

So very few "shock results". Remember that SA asides from choking, are extremely weak against spin, so its conceivable BD and AFG could trouble them.

We see BD and NZ it will come down to NRR, and of course BD is 95% likely to lose any NRR battle.

But the point is, that 6 wins will be safe, but I believe one semifinalist will have just 5 wins.

It should be noted that there are several permutations that will result in such standings, the one I gave is just one [likely] one.

[Miraz]

Originally Posted by al Furqaan
Disagree with the OP's math of 6 wins minimum, unless he's assuming that BD will have a bad net run rate - which is entirely plausible. Here's a potential scenario of final standings before the semifinals:

1) England 8-1 (only loss to India)
2) India 7-2 (losses to Sri Lanka and Australia)
3) Australia 6-3 (losses to England, Pakistan, South Africa)
4) Bangladesh 5-4 (losses to England, India, Australia, New Zealand)

5) New Zealand 5-4 (losses to England, India, Australia, South Africa)
6) South Africa 4-5 (losses to England, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan)
7) Pakistan 4-5 (losses to England, India, Bangladesh, New Zealand, West Indies)
8) Afghanistan 3-6 (wins vs Sri Lanka, West Indies, South Africa)
9) West Indies 2-7 (wins vs Pakistan, Sri Lanka)
10) Sri Lanka 1-8 (only win vs India)

The only upsets in this setting are:

SL beating India (happened in 2017 CT)
PAK beating Australia
BD beating South Africa
AFG beating South Africa
WI beating Pakistan

So very few "shock results". Remember that SA asides from choking, are extremely weak against spin, so its conceivable BD and AFG could trouble them.

We see BD and NZ it will come down to NRR, and of course BD is 95% likely to lose any NRR battle.

But the point is, that 6 wins will be safe, but I believe one semifinalist will have just 5 wins.

It should be noted that there are several permutations that will result in such standings, the one I gave is just one [likely] one.

Good analysis. Our first match against South Africa on 2nd June is very important for our chances in the World Cup.

[mufi_02]

Alfie, as you mentioned also, 5 wins will bring NRR into the equation. That’s why I was going with 6 wins.

We need to win 6. Winning 5 will not be enough and we will leave some chances to fate and good luck.

[mufi_02]

Originally Posted by ahnaf
Mufi bhai, You are giving too much credit to Australia. We can easily beat those fools. Loosers doing everything to avoid playing ODI with us for the last few years.

Only England & India would be hard to beat imo.

Aus are in very good form. They won the ODI series in India by winning the last 3 ODIs and then whitewashed Pakistan in UAE.

That was all without Smith/Warner who are now joining the team. Warner was in top form in the IPL.

Plus they are a big tournament team. Defending champions. Have the best WC stats in the last 2 decades.

That’s why I rate them highly.

[Rifat_02]

Australia might even end up winning the world cup this time, Smith and Warner will come out firing and motivated like anything backed up by players who just won a series in India and whitewashed a hapless Pakistan side, weak perhaps but Aus did not have Smith and Warner too.
Bowling attack good, batting order good. A complete side now.

[NoName]

Aus were on their way to thumping us in the CT if not for the rain

[Tigers_eye]

Originally Posted by mufi_02
Aus are in very good form. They won the ODI series in India by winning the last 3 ODIs and then whitewashed Pakistan in UAE.

That was all without Smith/Warner who are now joining the team. Warner was in top form in the IPL.

Plus they are a big tournament team. Defending champions. Have the best WC stats in the last 2 decades.

That’s why I rate them highly.

If we bat second the game is ours. Baas!!! Ami ar kisu bhujhi na.

[Roni_uk]

Originally Posted by Miraz
A win against Australia, New Zealand and South Africa at the world stage is long overdue for Bangladesh. This will show the true progress.

Afghanistan will be doing that this year. Who will it be?

[Night_wolf]

Originally Posted by Miraz
A win against Australia, New Zealand and South Africa at the world stage is long overdue for Bangladesh. This will show the true progress.

we have beaten SA in WC before, Also won against NZ in CT

I would say a win against AUS and WI at World stage in ODI is overdue

SL--Beaten in Asia Cup
Ind,SA,Eng,Pak--beaten in WC
NZ--Beaten in CT

although we have beaten WI in T20 WC, ODI world stage is still pending