Bitcoin price prediction!!

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by NoName
Not sure how I can describe the advantages any better than just simply saying no taxes? I don't really care for the direct access to crypto as much as I care for saving on taxes. I

For example if I invest 20k directly into buying bitcoin and sell it down the road for 40k, that is about 20k in capital gains. In Canada up to 50% of capital gains is taxed so 10k of that 20k profit will be subjected to tax (added to my income). Now under the opposite scenario if this was a bitcoin ETF under a tax sheltered account, I would keep my entire 20k profit (excluding the premium/fee). So iDumb, is there any disadvantage in me choosing to invest through the TFSA? I guess I'm just trying to understand why having the direct access matters so much (going to have to forgive me here as I don't know much about the intricacies of 'owning' bitcoin).

Also from what I understand, TFSA is much better than the Roth IRA. Canadians can carry over their contribution rooms, if unused, to following year. If a kid from the age of 18 has no idea of what investing is and never used his TFSA til the age of 30, his contribution room would be the accumulation of the years from 18-30, this doesn't exist in a Roth IRA. Another thing is with a TFSA we can withdraw funds anytime where as there are some limitations with the Roth IRA. Also, withdrawals are added to my contribution room for the next year (on top of the regular contribution room for the new year!) I hope this gives more context to what the TFSA is.

Yes TFSA as tax sheltered entity is better. if you have an ETF that actually BUY bitcoina and the price correlate with bitcoin then that would be the smarter choice. I am writing from the point of view of you not having an ETF that tracks bitcoin. Hope that clear. For example , in US only one i can think of is GBTC fund. But they only own like 3% or some rediculous low amount in bitcoin in their coin holdings. We yet to have an approved ETF tracking bitcoin or an overall crypto.

Hence my point that I would rather take a tax hit (also eliminate a limit) than not invest at all. I don't know what your limit is but let's say someone wants to buy 1 whole bitcoin - that's 40K - and if your TFSA fund limit hasn't reached that in my understanding that u are limited ...

Also ETF funds usually lag behind a technology. U would miss buying BTC from 2009 (more knowledagble mainstream 2013 - i mentioned it here in 2013 so it was mainstream/atleast those who follow market) if you wait to buy things in your protected portfolio. Hope thats clear.

I am not advocating buying outside of your TFSA if you don't have to but that shouldn't be your rate limiting factor.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by tonoy
Noname, excellent explanation and I couldn’t have said it better. As for my crypto position, I hold 90% of my crypto in RIOT shares and 10% in qbtc. I chose RIOT as it allows me to take advantage on writing covered calls on a weekly basis and earn income even on down trending weeks. Overall, I used to allocate 10% towards crypto. But as of today I’ve now doubled my position to 20% as I am getting further conviction that this will pay off on the long term. What’s your position like?

And from continuation of previous post, while this is an excellent idea to increase allocation, I see the inherent risk in putting that much money on a mining company as part of a bitcoin play. Eventually the mining of bitcoin become obsolete as limited account can be mined. While the price appreciation of BTC can be unlimited, I don't think you can say the same .

long term: btc vs riot



Short term: btc vs riot


Over long term RIOT will lose but short term (last 1 year) RIOT was exponentially more lucrative. Point is if it's not a direct correlation, maybe getting involved in other currency they may do better but you are at their mercy - its a company controlled by structure who can issue shares to dilute share price. Defeats the whole purpose of cryptos.

Personally I would own littel bit of both.

[iDumb]

why aren't the posts visible. u guys should update this messag board software...terrible.

[iDumb]

bought both mara and riot yesterday... you all making me money yo.. and tilray... The BC's triple crown from zman and tonoy. HIVE is the only one i don't own.

[NoName]

Originally Posted by tonoy
Noname, excellent explanation and I couldn’t have said it better. As for my crypto position, I hold 90% of my crypto in RIOT shares and 10% in qbtc. I chose RIOT as it allows me to take advantage on writing covered calls on a weekly basis and earn income even on down trending weeks. Overall, I used to allocate 10% towards crypto. But as of today I’ve now doubled my position to 20% as I am getting further conviction that this will pay off on the long term. What’s your position like?

I don't actually have a crypto position

But hearing all the buzz and hype about it in the last few months, I would like to dip my feet into the pond. That is why I was asking about some decent options I could look into.

When you mention covered calls, sounds like options trading (I am a noob when it comes to that), which brokerage do you use?

[NoName]

Originally Posted by iDumb
bought both mara and riot yesterday... you all making me money yo.. and tilray... The BC's triple crown from zman and tonoy. HIVE is the only one i don't own.

Do you think its too late to get into MARA or wait for a pull-back?

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by NoName
Do you think its too late to get into MARA or wait for a pull-back?

It's a bitcoin play. BTC is at 47k. if you think its gonna go higher short time, mara will also go higher. If btc get big pullback so will mara. But this is an extremely volatile stock - that's what i was trying to say - more riskier than actually owning the aleady riskly speculative bitcoin. I wouldn't put too much money in Mara. But u can certainly play it.

But if you ask me about bitcoin - i am bullish long term - so I wouldn't as much scared to put money in btc because you can average down your cost basis. BTC is here to stay.

[NoName]

Galaxy is another name that is being thrown around too.

[iDumb]

so what you guys look at more.. any more ideas?? mara riot cannibis all beeen great plays - making me rain money..
I want more and more..

[tonoy]

Looks like you got corrupted Idumb. But if you really wanna be dumb you might as well look at sos. I got in at 6 and think anything under 10 is a bargain. But again you can’t be rational on this.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by tonoy
Looks like you got corrupted Idumb. But if you really wanna be dumb you might as well look at sos. I got in at 6 and think anything under 10 is a bargain. But again you can’t be rational on this.

yeah. I am waayy too conservative for current market. Trying to change that mindset.

I spend tons of time trying to get 20 percent return over a year whereas some of you kids get that in a day. The correct approach is somehwere in between. With so many new young investors in the market now, I have to think differently because their collective power matters.

A portfolio of long term foreever holds along with swing trading these viral stocks is the way forward.

Also index investing will likely underperform in coming years I think. This strategy has been great in the past but is being exhausted. The top few giants make half of the index.. I am slowly moving some to active core despite higher fees.

anywas keep the recommendations coming. What is SOS though? can't figure it out.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by tonoy
I strongly believe this decade will be played out in EV and crypto. These two are huge ideas as to the total impact on a grand scale and on the long term being invested in them should reward those that have that long term vision.

I wanted to quote this before. You sound like Cathy wood now. LOL. this is an excellent way to approach things.

I am very bullish on bitcoin now.

[tonoy]

Originally Posted by iDumb

A portfolio of long term foreever holds along with swing trading these viral stocks is the way forward.

That’s the key. I am never a fan of index funds as I feel it is a defeatist attitude where you are unsure of who the winners would be. I am a firm believer in tech and innovation and that’s where I believe buffet and many of the boomers missed out. I think the power of internet has changed the dynamics of value investing and no longer are investor shrouded with uncertainty of a growth potential of a certain company. This is hence why companies such as Tesla is allowed to grow to its current price with ridiculous amount of p/e and still feel confident being invested with them because of the power of research being accessible to the masses thanks to the internet. Buffet fails to realize this and will forever play catch up. Catch Wood is a genius and love the research that she brings out to the masses.

SOS ticker. Look it up. Another crypto play. It’s getting some good hype and good swing opportunity.

[NoName]

BTCC ETF hitting the Canadian markets on the 18th, from a quick skim there is no premiums on this one like QBTC.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by tonoy
Looks like you got corrupted Idumb. But if you really wanna be dumb you might as well look at sos. I got in at 6 and think anything under 10 is a bargain. But again you can’t be rational on this.

hey tonoy can you start sharing when you start looking at a stock. I am feeling out of the loop and there are so many tings going on. i wanna know what you all young kids are talking about and doing.

I got into SOS today at 9 dolallrs but not enough... I think this is gonna be a pure momentum play with bullish bitcoin.. but I would to know these couple of days earlier if possible.... so i can try to figure out what's going on...

thanks.

[iDumb]

where is zman? I think he was the most crypto heavy here. His rocket ship probably left everyone behind. I feel like a loser now. I wanna also ride the rocket ship.

[mufi_02]

is there any way to hedge the downward risk? I have been holding and holding but growing nervous lately and worried one day might lose 20%. couldn't find any legal US exchanges that allows short selling or put options.

[cricman]

Originally Posted by mufi_02
is there any way to hedge the downward risk? I have been holding and holding but growing nervous lately and worried one day might lose 20%. couldn't find any legal US exchanges that allows short selling or put options.

Cash Secured Puts on Riot or Mara or BTC savings accounts that pay 8%-12% interest

[mufi_02]

Originally Posted by cricman
Cash Secured Puts on Riot or Mara or BTC savings accounts that pay 8%-12% interest

not too familiar with Riot/Mara. Do they trend exactly with the BTC or other alt coin price? and for example, how many Riot options would equivalently hedge 1 BTC (at $50k)?

I just trade in coinbase mostly and some in RH.

[mufi_02]

p.s. haven't posted in many months BUT its ridiculous how slow this site has become. had to post 2-3 times coz of server error.

[al Furqaan]

Originally Posted by mufi_02
not too familiar with Riot/Mara. Do they trend exactly with the BTC or other alt coin price? and for example, how many Riot options would equivalently hedge 1 BTC (at $50k)?

I just trade in coinbase mostly and some in RH.

RIOT seems to trend pretty closely with BTC.

Since RIOT is currently about 60 a share, you'd need 800 to hedge a BTC. So thats like 8 put contracts on RIOT if I'm doing the math correctly.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by al Furqaan
RIOT seems to trend pretty closely with BTC.

it's not a good correlation. Maybe BTC can dictate the direction but not the extent of the movement. It's not for faint of heart and i guess for traders.

[al Furqaan]

Originally Posted by iDumb
it's not a good correlation. Maybe BTC can dictate the direction but not the extent of the movement. It's not for faint of heart and i guess for traders.

Yeah RIOT tanked today, even though BTC has stayed steady. ETH also doing well.

[mufi_02]

I have spent the last day or two searching but couldn't find any legal US exchanges for shorting/hedging. There are BTC futures but the minimum contract is 5 BTC (obviously I don't have that much).

Looks like need to YOLO it.

[iDumb]

Stick to the original Bitcoin. No better alternative.

Miners are a trade play.

Take some profit if satisfied. It wont crash like it did in 2017.