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  #1076  
Old December 24, 2018, 10:27 AM
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zman zman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
i think the investment opportunity of the decade has just pass last decade

the algorithm trading makes for dramatic market move. 10% in a week. For the year dow is down only 10% - big deal.

if you think this is 2008 to 2009 level of activity you haven't properly lived through it probably saw from sideline.

will remain 100% stocks in 2019.. Full blown contributions are set in motion.

anyways, in your PE example you should be looking at forward PE. Based on that market was fairly priced. Can't really go with such rudimentary metrics.
In a round about way you are saying you mostly agree with what I stated . The reason I called it the opportunity of the decade is because 2008-2009 was the opportunity of a lifetime. Regarding valuation, I used a simple analogy so that folks who aren't into the nitty gritty of finance can easily understand. When it comes to evaluating a company, say for a merger or acquisition deal, deal makers don't even look at PE, they look at EBITDA. One of the line items they remove from earning is Taxes. 2018 was largely driven by tax breaks compared to years prior. From that perspective alone one could see real growth was slowing. The most important thing to me however was the guidance provided by companies like Apple and Accenture who are projecting IT spending cut by corporations.

I used to closely work with equity research analysts back in my M&A days. In my experience analysts do a poor job of predicting Forward PE when markets reach inflection point. This is due to the fact that they tend to follow a herd mentality to reach consensus. If they get it wrong they can point to consensus where as if they call out the canary in the coal mine and get it wrong they have no place to hide. Once a few brave analysts break the trend only then others start jumping on the bandwagon. Aside from algorithmic trading, this is another reason why stocks tend to overshoot on the downside.

I still believe we're in a secular bull market. I won't be surprised if Dow hits 50k in 5 yrs but I can totally understand why the valuations are where they are right now and could get even cheaper.
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  #1077  
Old December 24, 2018, 11:25 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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^ in a selling market .. valuation metrics has no value. The only thing that matters is sentiment and movements dynamics .

It would be unwise to buy a stock even if it's severely undervalued when market has such a dramatic downward movement .

I bought more Apple share in 2008 at 200 dollars pre (7 to 1 split) when their quarter over quarter sales growth was extraordinary .. only to see it fall to 80 dollars in a matter months . Stock at 200 was severely undervalued ... didn't matter . Apple went onto having some 800% price appreciation from the pre crash price .

I had made a post here in this site when I bough it ..it was a diff finance thread ..should I buy or sell.

Anyways ... good luck to all .
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  #1078  
Old December 25, 2018, 04:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportingBD
(I am those kind of people, you either win big or don't get in at all).
You do not strike me as one of those people. I think you are a very conservative guy if u were to invest. I think you are a CD ladder type of investor. Definitely not a go big or go home guy.

The only guy in this thread who I think has good risk tolerance is zman. that's it.

Quote:
waiting for the collapse.
DO let us know when u get in. I am gonna give u an example that happened to me in early 2009. I thought market was so down, it can't possibly go down more. I bought I think Bank of America and it dropped another 50% next day before starting to climb up. That 50% drop is gonna shake a guy like u out of the market in a heartbeat. until you prove me otherwise, this is my early judgement of you sorry.

btw there is nothing wrong with being a CD ladder type of guy. Mental peace is above everything. But thinking u are a risk taker is not an accurate self assessment. Also I am not saying taking more risks is a better trait either. it's just a different style.
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  #1079  
Old December 25, 2018, 07:59 AM
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Ajfar Ajfar is offline
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My traditional and roth IRA went down by about 16+% over the last couple months. I don’t really mind it. I’m only invested on dividend stocks and I’m reinvesting every quarter. Gives me an opportunity to get more and increase my total dividend for the year.
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  #1080  
Old December 29, 2018, 01:29 PM
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Could you guys please name me couple of Companies/industries that do well during recession?

Would like to read everyone's insight, just gathering opinion, could be useful for future.
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  #1081  
Old December 29, 2018, 09:46 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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^Cash does the best.

I am actually concerned that you are interested to enter the market now. It's very typical market movement - pulling the side watchers in with market sell off. If somehow dow can rally back to mid 24k quickly I will try to move to cash.

I know there are a lot of ppl and pundits saying this is the "bottom". I am not sure what they mean by that. Bottom of what?

Start of market sell off is a leading indicator of a recession and they continue to get hammered well into when the lagging indicators (ie job loss) show up. the only thing that changed is the cost of borrowing is higher from few months back when the market was all time high (even so it was an expected rate hike). We are still at full force employment. How can this possibly be bottom if ppl are thinking this sell off is due to the impending recession?

If it's bottom then it was a bogus sell off. But if there is recession to come... This is not the time to think which stock does well in recession. None do.

Regardless of recession yes or no - if market rallies somehow (looks very unlikely)to mid 24K dow quickly, i will move to cash only because i think Fed will not cave to political pressure and will cont to raise rates next year as planned and market is gonna hate that move. So downward pressure is much much higher than anything .
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  #1082  
Old December 30, 2018, 07:54 AM
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Not looking to invest now. Recession hasn’t started yet.
When it does, you just wait and see. The damage could last for more than a year.
But it’s good to know what stocks can thrive doing recession (100%).

Discount retailers could be something interesting during recession.
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  #1083  
Old December 30, 2018, 09:35 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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^LOL ok. Let us know when u enter.

Read my post again. No stock does well. the fact that u think retail is where the money is during a recession shows u need to read a lot more and think better. no offense.

u should be looking at things not affected by People's discretionary spending... rather look at companies that thrive on perhaps govt spending, or essentials. Retail is a discretionary spending sector. why would retail do well when ppl start losing jobs and have no money??
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  #1084  
Old December 30, 2018, 09:54 AM
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Not retail as a whole (industry). Only those that are discount retailers.
There are various articles online, which I suggest you read. Outside the box thinking can help.

Steve Gotham, project director at Allegra Strategies, said: "Clearly the economic circumstances in the UK are playing into the hands of the discounters. They are appealing to new customers and those new customers are coming from more middle-class back grounds."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...rn-853614.html

These two companies are private, not listed. But there are other discount retailers that profited during the recession. But as a whole the industry takes a beating.

TJX Companies Inc, I think they did well during recession, subsidiaries included TJ Maxx, clothing retailers.

I think with lot of research, you can make money investing in the right discount retailers during recession.
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  #1085  
Old December 30, 2018, 10:07 AM
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Here's an example. Primark is one of the cheapest retailers in UK. You don't have money to spend? don't worry you can always shop at Primark, that's how cheap they are.

Primark profits increase despite recession:
https://www.theguardian.com/business...es-profit-rise

Recession lifts Primark Profits:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...k-profits.html

It's not straight forward to identify this retailers, hence I asked for insight.
Perhaps some of you guys made money in the last recession doing something similar, investing in cheap option retailers.
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  #1086  
Old January 4, 2019, 03:55 AM
G-man G-man is offline
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Markets are going to get more volatile I'd say. Still holding USD trades, long rates.

In terms of stocks, value oriented stocks will outperform. They may be negative returns, but outperform compared to high beta stocks.

It's all about liquidity. Always has been always will be.
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  #1087  
Old January 4, 2019, 03:56 AM
G-man G-man is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportingBD
Here's an example. Primark is one of the cheapest retailers in UK. You don't have money to spend? don't worry you can always shop at Primark, that's how cheap they are.

Primark profits increase despite recession:
https://www.theguardian.com/business...es-profit-rise

Recession lifts Primark Profits:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...k-profits.html

It's not straight forward to identify this retailers, hence I asked for insight.
Perhaps some of you guys made money in the last recession doing something similar, investing in cheap option retailers.
Debt collecting companies, legal/solvency companies
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  #1088  
Old January 18, 2019, 11:59 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb

Regardless of recession yes or no - if market rallies somehow (looks very unlikely)to mid 24K dow quickly, i will move to cash only because i think Fed will not cave to political pressure and will cont to raise rates next year as planned and market is gonna hate that move. So downward pressure is much much higher than anything .
Market showing some persistence buying. Reached my target but since volatility has subsided - staying put for now. My loss from height of market has lessened significantly.

Most of my market exposure is to index - large, mid, small, and some international. I will list my individual stocks that i hold as of now... I will be increasing my individual purchases in coming years....I never aimed to properly diversify my individual holdings but I will be looking to do that as well as over the years, the one i kept, they all added up..

Beginning of 2019 i own the following stocks:
Nike, Under Armour, Foot locker (yes I love my athleisures). Will look to get rid of FL

Mastercard, Paypal, Bank of America, Citigroup. Will get rid of Citi. Keep the rest. For MA will look to trade - ie sell at certain level ie ~220s and try to buy back again.

Facebook, Snapchat - Sell both of them into strength.. Very risky hold imo. Poor/no future.

Apple, Amazon, Intuitive Surgical - Keep.

Disney - Confusing hold. Should be holding netflix instead of this POS

-----------------------------------

I have Finance, Retail, Technology, Health (somewhat) covered. Need some industrial, materials, real estate. One of my regret is to never purchased Boeing. I once wrote in this site like some 8 or 9 years ago, if i am to buy one stock in DOW, it would be BA. It is just such a cool company to be a part of.

Hoping for a good 2019..happy investing

I am looking to add more individual stocks and trim indexing.. anyone has their fav stock suggest away.
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  #1089  
Old January 29, 2019, 05:14 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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so our year-long competition has ended and was a close game

returns not much difference between 1 and 2 but in terms of volatility- big difference

a 1-standard dev move on a daily basis was 4.66% for idumb and 1.15% for gman - three times less vol for more returns.

thanks for playing y'all. happy to start another game.
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  #1090  
Old January 29, 2019, 08:42 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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^you are a joke. I was number 1 throughout 95% of the time over a year. Look at history. this is just an arbitrary end date that miraculously worked for u.

i saw ur election.. full of redundancy and unoriginality.. no matter what happens in the market.. ur returns remain in 8 to 12 percent area despite investing all the money.

I bet up until even yesterday i was one. I would be ashamed to bring this up if i was u and the talking that u do here.

If I really wanted to win.. i could have jsut gone cash when up at even 20%.. even few days ago because ur election is not optimized to do well and swing....


U invest like an Old guy...infact a dumb old guy.... who the hell shorts a freaken bear etf. It's like a double negative.. fancy for no reason.. end result.. swing of 1%.
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  #1091  
Old January 29, 2019, 09:09 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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which election am i going for? am i president?

this end date was the longest game time they allow, arbitrarily picked at the start of the game.

which inverse ETF am i short? these are all my short positions- which one is inverse?

FXE
EWA
JNK
HYG
FXA
EEM
FLAU

once again, sorry you don't like my "election" or whatever the hell you mean.

you were at best a one trick pony, market up on tech, dumbass portfolio up. market down, dumbass down.

STFU and go back hiding in your corner. old hag.
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  #1092  
Old January 29, 2019, 10:15 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Do you really want me to go through your dumb selections and redundancy of it??

My one tick pony is enough to crush ur redundant boring dumb emerging market short etfs. Tesla position is the ONLY one u took that I can give u credit for u for having some balls in ur age.... Rest of ur positions are a JOKE for ur age... A joke.

I am not trying to make small of you but ur thinking just makes me puke... it will take me 5 years to achieve what u will in 20.

again my swing didn't match market swing u dumbo.. if it did.. my position wouldn't be highest close to 60% return few months into ur game... sp didn't give u 60% return in few months.. so don't talk rubbish to someone who can trade u in and out before u can realize wtf is going on.
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  #1093  
Old January 29, 2019, 10:20 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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you're the biggest joke for any age- the biggest failure in life who never managed to go the distance that you claim. if I was that bad at your age, i'd pack up and just be a slum bum back in fokirpur or wherever the hell you're from.

you internet hero, real life slum lord. go back to what you were doing. thanks for coming.
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  #1094  
Old January 29, 2019, 10:25 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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Once again couldn't even point out which bear etf i was short, that's because i was NOT. how spastic can you be? you deranged lunatic piece of crap.
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  #1095  
Old January 29, 2019, 10:56 PM
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when i mention age, that also applies to me when it comes to aggressiveness. Now u are just mad and lashing out because u can't handle the truth. U don't believe u have redundant etfs there? on the same theme? u have some dumb trade either short bear etf or short long etf while also purchasing the bear etf. when i looked many moons ago... and just full of redundancy.. taht's why they all have same yield at 8%.

please give us your superior insight then for each picks if u truly believe there is no redundancy... See i am not gonna do ur dumb work because my time has value. Just like i stopped trading on this because i can do that with my own money and extract value.

If I wanted to win... I would have gone cash long ago because ur portfolio would have NEVER crossed 60% in a year... it would be 8 to 12%... just look at the history dude. that will answer everything... u are just a leach that comes at the end and wants recognition. So if the game ended yesterday- i would be 1.. hahaha. 95%of the year belonged to Idumb despite all the market volatility and u workd for a big hedge fund and i don't but invest worse than a retired rickshawpuller.
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  #1096  
Old January 29, 2019, 11:22 PM
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^what is wrong with a retired rickshawpuller
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  #1097  
Old January 29, 2019, 11:32 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by One World
^what is wrong with a retired rickshawpuller
LOL. It's another way of saying the guy is too conservative. This guy bought if I recall Treasury some 3x etf. How much do u think that's gonna swing to in a year x 3?? 40K out of his 100k is in some sort of bonds or treasury in a game with fake money. and he i assume is someone in late 20s or early 30. I don't what his number is on last day.. the fact that he brought this up because it worked in his favor show his poor lack of judgement... so if game ended yesterday - would he have brought this up? maybe. But i am more concerned about his 17 trades and the thinking behind them..... and then another 20% he went index with Aus market or something like that.. INDEX!!!!

Staying CASH could have beaten 50% of the participants... but is stayikng cash a sound investment in a game portfolio?

I like his thoughts in this thread sometimes and again I will say he is ok in his comfort zone but the guys risk tolerance is so low it oozes from even his game portfolio.

he can be all defensive he wants... and attack me however he wants.. aint gonna change my perception.
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  #1098  
Old January 30, 2019, 12:50 AM
G-man G-man is offline
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Idumb honestly go sit on your finger and rotate.

You yourself go look at each etf and asses it's underlying and construct. Maybe educate yourself on treasuries and macro as well so you understand what I'm doing.

You can cheery pick data points all you want, truth is you were down tens of thousands at one time making you worse than my dog at investing.

I on the other hand ranged constantly in the positive.

Anyway I'm not proving anything to you, cos you literally mean less than a piece of shyt to me. Except I can't flush you down the toilet.
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  #1099  
Old January 30, 2019, 01:16 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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If you knew how to invest maybe you can afford better flushable toilet. Unfortunate for you.

I think you still fail to see the point. It's understable.

Ur choices have merit for certain type of age group and for certain type of ppl with significant assets who want to minimize some market risk. You are not the guy who will invest 10k in one stock and sell it when it is 100k in less than a decade. U are the guy who will boast about having it turned to 20k over that period. yes it's possible u can end up having 20k and the other guy going to 500 dollars but that is a risk/reward that most ppl reading this thread SHOULD take.

U had 40K in bond and treasury and another 20 k in index. that's 60K out of 100k that will very Unlikely to beat swing of an individual stock. U did this on a game with fake money. Shamim had more chances of beating me than u and that guy HAS very little clue on companies but invest with gut feelings. But the way he traded later is what I would fear of getting beaten by in a game...not u.. never!

I am not cherry picking date. you are. The last day is literally the day u went over by dumb luck and u are boasting here about it shamelessly while i am trying to keep you grounded on why u are such a retired rickshawpuller type investor.
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  #1100  
Old January 30, 2019, 01:24 AM
G-man G-man is offline
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i was short the index you idiot. PHUC MAN do you ever use your pea brain??? or did momma give ya shyt for brains??

rising rates
bearish emerging mkts
bullish usd
bearish all other currencies.

go figure it out. and i periodcially posted results. go look. stupid wank.

you win man. you're the best at everything.
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