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  #1176  
Old January 11, 2020, 04:19 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Originally Posted by tonoy
Do you think it is a bad time to buy aapl, fb, msft right now since they are at all time high or wait for a bit of price correction? I’ve just recently got my yearly bonus and wanted to invest that in for long term.
I have no idea. But i think 2020 will be a overall a positive market year due to election. It started out well - ignoring middle east conflict like a boss. I am not sure how much more those can rise to. I was lucky enough to buy apple during that market downturn at around 150+ and it just worked out well.. almost close to 100% gain which I actually never thought would happen this quick.. i was thinking maybe 30% gain or so.

But tech has been on fire. I too have newly infused cash that's not automated to buy market (ie backdoor roth for 2020) as well as money from some stocks that I sold and trimmed (mistake - ie snapchat, mastercard) and I am equally not sure what to buy to be honest.

Let us know what you do.... But i will most likely just buy something randomly... or just overall index if i can't decide.

Tesla stock was on sale couple of months ago... completely missed that boat.... just hesitated a little and next thing u know never bought.
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  #1177  
Old January 11, 2020, 04:29 PM
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btw I also bught UBER and got owned big time. I thnk i lost 40% or so. SO not everything was all Rosy. But 2019 worked out really well for me. Thanks Almighty. One crash and all maybe wiped but hey what's life without risks?
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  #1178  
Old January 11, 2020, 10:12 PM
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tonoy tonoy is offline
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What's your thoughts on buying Boeing? I'm also thinking about amazon and netflix. So many options...

I too was aware about the election year. I've read somewhere that market usually averages about 12% on an election year which is always a nice boost.

Tesla is too risky for me. I just dont like the fundamentals for it. Although, Musk always seems to draw attention, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
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  #1179  
Old January 11, 2020, 10:12 PM
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What's your thoughts on buying Boeing? I'm also thinking about amazon and netflix. So many options...

I too was aware about the election year. I've read somewhere that market usually averages about 12% on an election year which is always a nice boost.

Tesla is too risky for me. I just dont like the fundamentals for it. Although, Musk always seems to draw attention, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
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  #1180  
Old January 11, 2020, 11:21 PM
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Originally Posted by tonoy
What's your thoughts on buying Boeing? I'm also thinking about amazon and netflix. So many options...

.
I own Boeing. It's a great company but I don't think the price has gone down the way it should have in in the aftermath of the MAX design crisis. If the stock price was hammered to begin with like it should have been, i would be all over it. Becuase realistically there are only two companies in the world that makes commercial planes - boeing and airbus. with increase in international travel, airlines companies just need more planes and also update their old planes.

So despite all the crap that's been happening Boeing don't really lose orders. No matter what Boeing will continue to thrive in decades to come - this 737 max disaster will eventually be fixed. And you will still be flying in boeing planes in decades to come.

having said that the current stock price DOES NOT REFLECT what is happening at the company. it's that high likely because investors realize the duopoly in plane manufacturing.

I don't think you will lose a ton of money if you invest in boeing even if something else come up. I also don't think u will gain so much given the stock price hasn't really gone down after such a disastrous accidents thats clearly their fault.

if u wanna buy look at charts and look for support. Current price of 330 looks like somewhat of a support.
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  #1181  
Old January 12, 2020, 08:35 AM
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SportingBD SportingBD is offline
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Question: Why do you guys care what the market does in the short term?

Should you not be analysing the business valuation of a company?

Most of what I read here, is about how great the market has been, this and that, you should buy xyz.. but no one has ever explained with sound analysis why they think X company is worth 100 billion?

what are it's risk factors, why do you believe the valuation is justified, how? lot of amateur guesses without substantive backing/evidence.

Most of you guys seem quite price driven? market guys?

Just thought, I will say this... remembered this quote from Buffett.

Quote:
It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked.
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  #1182  
Old January 12, 2020, 08:47 AM
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^ The above is not directed for criticism. I just don't want any of you to be hurt for not doing enough to understand what investing really is. Don't get caught out because everyone else is winning, so what? There is big difference between real investing and speculating.

Analyzing a company, understanding it's valuation, it's true intrinsic value is hard work. Investing is a full time job... and those that do it as second income, usually are price/market speculators.
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  #1183  
Old January 12, 2020, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportingBD
Question: Why do you guys care what the market does in the short term?

Should you not be analysing the business valuation of a company?

Most of what I read here, is about how great the market has been, this and that, you should buy xyz.. but no one has ever explained with sound analysis why they think X company is worth 100 billion?

what are it's risk factors, why do you believe the valuation is justified, how? lot of amateur guesses without substantive backing/evidence.

Most of you guys seem quite price driven? market guys?

Just thought, I will say this... remembered this quote from Buffett.
Why don't you start? Write about few companies here and do your value analysis. Here is the thing you are forgetting.. there are multiple analysts from multiple different financial institutions who are already doing that for you. You just have to read those. At the end of the day all valuations are driven by projected numbers and it's upto you to figure out if those numbers will be beat or missed.

Value investing is just one way of doing it. Buffet has been underperforming for a decade now because he completely missed the consumer digital revolution as he wasn't smart enough to catch consumers changing behaviors.

i think the real question is have you started investing in market yet or are you still reading articles and books and becoming very knowledgeable without having skin in game.

pp care about short term because it's fun and they keep u informed. and they wanna win sooner.
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  #1184  
Old January 12, 2020, 02:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
Why don't you start? Write about few companies here and do your value analysis. Here is the thing you are forgetting.. there are multiple analysts from multiple different financial institutions who are already doing that for you. You just have to read those. At the end of the day all valuations are driven by projected numbers and it's upto you to figure out if those numbers will be beat or missed.

Value investing is just one way of doing it. Buffet has been underperforming for a decade now because he completely missed the consumer digital revolution as he wasn't smart enough to catch consumers changing behaviors.

i think the real question is have you started investing in market yet or are you still reading articles and books and becoming very knowledgeable without having skin in game.

pp care about short term because it's fun and they keep u informed. and they wanna win sooner.
The truth is no. I have not. And I don't see myself being in the market soon, with the uncertainty in UK. If I do get in, as indicated, I will look to invest in the FTSE.

It's not easy to beat the index, as Buffett has explained over the years, those who invest in an index fund (say S&P500) outperform 90% of the people in the investing world over time. Buffets underperformance is justified, he himself has said, that over time, the S&P500 is a better bet than Berkshire.

About books and knowledge, no. I work in a field, where it's part of my job to analyse companies, and write reports. I look for companies that are financially resilient (or not), and go through a lot of data (which is extremely time consuming). But I feel happy, that the work is valued by the press (thanks to almighty God).

It's not a bad thing when Financial Times and others seek your analysis (not to boast, but feels good). There have been companies that went bust in UK, which I have highlighted 2-3 years ago and the press picked up on my analysis. But what good is this for me? to be frank, not much, only the clients/press benefit from it, and of course the company I work for, simply because they can say we told you so.

+ You can win in short term in value investing also. There is no set rules, except the seeking of big margin of safety.
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  #1185  
Old January 12, 2020, 02:35 PM
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Quote:
At the end of the day all valuations are driven by projected numbers and it's upto you to figure out if those numbers will be beat or missed.
This is not investing, it's speculating.

In investing, you don't give a damn about short term outcomes, whether in the next year, if the numbers hit or miss, it's irrelevant. You can't also expect the company to hit the numbers forecasted year after year. for your information, over 60% of those people (financial analyst etc) who come up with projected figures either overvalue the estimate by 15% or undervalue by 15%. It's a poor way to invest. You should invest because your analysis and valuation is right, and offers you a huge safety of margin, so if things go wrong you don't lose a lot. Forget what others are predicting.
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  #1186  
Old January 12, 2020, 03:17 PM
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Ajfar Ajfar is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportingBD
Question: Why do you guys care what the market does in the short term?

Should you not be analysing the business valuation of a company?

Most of what I read here, is about how great the market has been, this and that, you should buy xyz.. but no one has ever explained with sound analysis why they think X company is worth 100 billion?

what are it's risk factors, why do you believe the valuation is justified, how? lot of amateur guesses without substantive backing/evidence.

Most of you guys seem quite price driven? market guys?

Just thought, I will say this... remembered this quote from Buffett.
You don't need to be a financial guru to be in the market. The things that you are asking for, if people knew/understood that much they wouldn't be posting in BC about it, they'd be working in the wall street with that knowledge making big $$.

Seekingalpha.com is a good source of information, people with knowledge write in depth analysis and explain their position. This may be a good source for you if you are interested.

I wouldn't buy boeing right now, with all the emails that are coming out, I think more internal information will come out about 737 max. I saw an article the other day about one of Boeing's sub tier supplier is letting go 2,800 employees as a result of 737 max production halt.

My year went pretty well, ended with 3K dividend for the year. Most of the things I have is near 52 weeks high, so I'm not reinvesting in most of them right now. Need to find some new ones for the year to start accumulating.
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  #1187  
Old January 12, 2020, 03:19 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Actually that's not speculation either. U are too much hung on definitions . They are all interwined. "Value" investing is just one approach. You are predicting that eventually market will come to optimizing its price. Whereas investing in growth stocks can give life changing returns. Everyone has their own risk tolerance and own way of doing it. They are all good investments.

See the thing is u are writing some brave texts on what ppl should do but I wanna know is have u invested ? Value or no.

Truth is stock market will rise decades after decades. The earlier u start the better it is.

If u put money in stocks u may lose once or twice and it will hurt but eventually u will win .... And make up all the loses and more. Invest early and invest often. Don't be afraid. It's only money...
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  #1188  
Old January 12, 2020, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajfar
You don't need to be a financial guru to be in the market. The things that you are asking for, if people knew/understood that much they wouldn't be posting in BC about it, they'd be working in the wall street with that knowledge making big $$.

Seekingalpha.com is a good source of information, people with knowledge write in depth analysis and explain their position. This may be a good source for you if you are interested.

I wouldn't buy boeing right now, with all the emails that are coming out, I think more internal information will come out about 737 max. I saw an article the other day about one of Boeing's sub tier supplier is letting go 2,800 employees as a result of 737 max production halt.

My year went pretty well, ended with 3K dividend for the year. Most of the things I have is near 52 weeks high, so I'm not reinvesting in most of them right now. Need to find some new ones for the year to start accumulating.
Hi ajfar ... How are u long time no see.

Sporting BD also work in part of wallstreet . Seekingalpha also has regular folks contributing . I disagree with ur analysis is they are smart. They just have other ppls money to play with. Get commission regardless of performance.

Business/finance degrees are one of the easiest to get.

We who are in science math and engineering are quiet smart and can probably do great if put in that field.
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  #1189  
Old January 13, 2020, 08:32 PM
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Zeeshan Zeeshan is offline
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If I was an investor and BC a stock, then this is precisely where I would start selling.... lol
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  #1190  
Old January 13, 2020, 11:40 PM
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^na i think you are a bagholder now... time to sell was 3-4 of years ago.. maybe some of the value investor here will buy this POS from you.
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