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  #1051  
Old December 3, 2018, 09:51 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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I think Santa Clause Rally is on. The biggest two fears of rising interest rates and tensions from trade war with china eased significantly.

I can't believe I am saying this but Trump is controlling this market. This guy has some voodoo magic on ppl.
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  #1052  
Old December 4, 2018, 04:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
I think Santa Clause Rally is on. The biggest two fears of rising interest rates and tensions from trade war with china eased significantly.

I can't believe I am saying this but Trump is controlling this market. This guy has some voodoo magic on ppl.
well that didn't last long. market realized within 24 hours that there was no concrete deal and wiped all the gains from yesterday.

rest of 2018 and all of 2019 will be a bumpy ride.

Trump has absolutely no clue wtf he is doing. Calling himself "tariff man" today and screamed "make america rich again" in some tweet. he needs to stop tweeting. it only pleases his redneck base. does nothing to real policy or economy.
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  #1053  
Old December 4, 2018, 08:05 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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^yeah it's all about sentiment. There are some model predicting 67% or so chance of a recession. historically market is up around this time and wth positive news things tend to repeat. Too bad market is not sustaining and is in get out before it's too late mentality is on.

up until yesterday i was able to reduce my losses significantly to the point of couple of more +sessions to be ahead - i think it's back to the gutters again .

this trade war can be devastating if persisted on.
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  #1054  
Old December 6, 2018, 04:52 AM
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Future is down. May get ugly today . Brace yo self .
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  #1055  
Old December 6, 2018, 11:39 AM
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As I indicated couple of months back, the writing was on the wall. With the bull run getting long in the tooth, stocks getting historically overpriced, the looming trade war with China and the possibility of Dems winning the house, the markets were bound to crash. I didn't even take into consideration the inverted yield curve. If anything the bull run lasted longer than it was supposed to because of Trump.

Glad I bought all those put options to protect myself. Just when I started thinking they'd expire without any value I find myself down only a few percentage points from the market highs. The US economy is doing great and will continue to do fine for some time. Fact is the stocks got overvalued at some point. I think at 27,000 Dow stocks were trading at 18 PE where historically they traded at 12 - 15 times. Now they're already down to 15-16 PE. I think most people got complacent in the last few years as one didn't need to think too hard to make easy money. Going forward there will be plenty of opportunities. We just have to research harder and identify them.
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  #1056  
Old December 6, 2018, 11:40 AM
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what is tariff man gonna do now? dow and sp both negative YTD. Stoxx had worst day since brexit 2016.

this is almost entirely trump's making. but its fine as long as he keeps on tweeting and retweeting about the mexican caravan, funded by Soros, coming into US plundering and taking our jobs in the process.

last 2 years had no credible economic policy. the tax cut was a hogwash that only benefited the rich.
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  #1057  
Old December 6, 2018, 11:42 AM
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I'm curious to know if anyone is looking into any new sectors or any new companies that are working with new ideas and/or innovative technologies
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  #1058  
Old December 6, 2018, 01:19 PM
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al Furqaan al Furqaan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb

this trade war can be devastating if persisted on.
Anyone who thinks you can win a trade war with China has no clue about Chinese culture, discipline, and values.

I know nothing about economics. In fact outside of cricket, some basic pathophysiology, and some basic theology, I know almost nothing.

But thinking sanctions will sway the North Koreans or tariffs will coerce the Chinese is as effective as thinking misery will overwhelm Palestinians.

Even if the Chinese economy dies, 90% of chinese people can survive on eating grass and squirrels...can Americans tolerate only having 2 cars to drive instead of 5???

However strong the economy is is 99% due to things that happened during Obama's 8 years. Trump has zero contribution. DOW was at 8,000 when Obama took office and nearly tripled during his 8 years. By the time Trump leaves office, the DOW will probably have lost unless Trump policies are reversed.

Foreign policy is in shambles. North Korea is still building missiles. Iran won't be going nuclear for a while - that was never an imminent credible threat despite what Netanyahoo might say. Now with the MBS-Kashoggi scandal, the US is in a bind. If Congress gets their way, the Saudis might pull their billions out of our markets. Conversely, KSA is crucial in the US-Israeli-GCC alliance against Iran. If Trump gets his way, MBS will only become emboldened further as his immunity will be solidified. The EU already knows they are largely on their own in world affairs. Russia is still being Russia and Putin knows he's in control of the chess board.
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  #1059  
Old December 6, 2018, 01:41 PM
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Couple of days ago was doing some analysis. Came across to realise that the debt to cash ratio for most US companies are worse than the time of recession. It seems like, we are heading towards another recession. Not sure how far we are from it though.
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  #1060  
Old December 6, 2018, 01:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan

Even if the Chinese economy dies, 90% of chinese people can survive on eating grass and squirrels...can Americans tolerate only having 2 cars to drive instead of 5???
lol that was classic.

trump has no clue whatsoever. he will tweet something totally unrelated now and distract the conversation. or go to one of those MAGA rallies and get cheers from rednecks to get some confidence.

GM already announced huge US job cuts. 5 year treasuries are yielding less than 2 year. this inverted curve always predicted recession.
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  #1061  
Old December 6, 2018, 04:29 PM
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al Furqaan al Furqaan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mufi_02
lol that was classic.

trump has no clue whatsoever. he will tweet something totally unrelated now and distract the conversation. or go to one of those MAGA rallies and get cheers from rednecks to get some confidence.

GM already announced huge US job cuts. 5 year treasuries are yielding less than 2 year. this inverted curve always predicted recession.
And I left out the biggest single thing.

The gradual, but sure erosion of democracy in America. Wisconsin is one of the very first states where democracy is ending. The GOP lost the governership and the AG post but still control the legislative branch. So they are pushing for laws that will strip the new incumbent Democrats of their powers and authority. This can't be undone until Democrats control the state senate and/or house.

Essentially, this is the end of American democracy. Because one state has been successfully able to do it, other states will follow. And also because rules and order only work if everyone (or the vast majority of people obey them), Democrats will have no choice but to to do the same thing in return.

The beginning of this process probably started when the GOP obstructed Obama's appointments, leading to the Democrats to push things through with a simple majority. The Republicans then followed suit using the nuclear option to get Supreme Court nominees Gorsuch and Kavanaugh elevated. So now everything will be done on a simple majority basis, which terminates the need for bipartisanship, which in turn just increases the D-R divide in the US.

We are about to enter a new era of psuedo-democracy. And if it happens in the US, it will most likely happen in Europe, Australia, Canada as well.
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  #1062  
Old December 6, 2018, 05:04 PM
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^^agreed.

but the biggest threat to democracy has been gerrymandering by the republicans in the last few years. they have redrawn districts that favors their candidates.

Quote:
Democrats in North Carolina earned 48.3 percent of the total vote cast in House races but appeared to win only three seats; Republicans had 50.4 percent of the vote and won at least nine seats.
Quote:
North Carolina and Ohio are two of the most gerrymandered states, said Michael Li, senior counsel in the Brennan Center for Justice’s Democracy Program. And in both of those states, Democrats failed to pick up a single House seat despite winning close to half of the popular vote. They hold only four of 16 seats in Ohio — and in the Ohio House, Republicans maintained a veto-proof supermajority with a bare majority of the popular vote.

By contrast, Pennsylvania, which voted under a new nonpartisan, court-ordered map, went from 13 Republicans and five Democrats to nine Republicans and nine Democrats. This didn’t quite match the popular vote, which broke for Democrats 55 percent to 45 percent, but the shift underscored that voting lines can matter as much as votes.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...mandering.html
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