[cluster11]

Yesterday's Brazil - Germany semi-final was the worst unexpected soccer experience in my entire life. And I think some commentator's rightly said this can only happen once in a lifetime. After the first 30 mins I told my kids - just go upstairs; and my Dad and I just watched and it felt like we are taking a beating by just looking at the tv. I can't really express in words how it felt.
It is not just the scoreline (which is historic in many ways) but the fact that these 2 teams are quiet strong and nobody got an easy pass to the semi-finals. Only explanation I can think of is this : this match happened the way it did because of a number of events before the match and during the match that combined to create a result very very unlikely.

1) Brazil's easy path to Semis: Brazil didn't have to qualify for the WC. Since the unexpected Confederation cup success they haven't really been tested "together" as a team until the World Cup. In the very first group match Brazil conceded own goal within first 10 mins of the match and that was a big red-flag on their back-line. I almost started thinking of them at that point as the 1990 Brazil team (which is the worst I've seen so far) that had exited in the 2nd round to Argentina. As the tournament progressed they barely made through against good teams (not best teams): Mexico, Chile and Columbia.

2) Brazil's advantage turned weakness: The team had no strong defense compared to other big names, no strong midfield, but they did have a powerful offense. They made up the weakness by pulling together as a team, and we saw this a little bit against Croatia (when they went down 0-1) and a lot against Columbia in the QF. When they played as a team they were pretty good. But the glue to this teamwork: Neymer in front and Thiego Silva in the back, was broken after Columbia match. Germany used this to perfection.

3) Emotional impact of home: Brazil has a skill set of players. But playing at home in WC is tremendous pressure for them. I didn't really know what it is until I saw in this WC, I have only heard of this pressure on them from historical account of 1950. Emotional impact on putting that Brazilian jersey in front of home crowd made this team play with their heart more than their brain as we saw in match after match. When they finally faced one of the best offense and midfield in Germany, they still had the attacking mindset of Columbia match with nothing to back it up except emotion.

4) Emotion leads to disaster: When Brazil conceded the first goal, they correctly went on attack and created chances. There was that close call for penalty on a hard tackle. But you could see how dejected the defense became when they gave up that second goal. That was really the end of the match for Brazil. At that point they went into unplanned attack mode with no cohesion for next 15 mins and that's what Germany made them pay for. After that first 35 mins I would say rest of the match pretty much became what we could expect. Both teams attacking and Germany getting the better of it with a 2-1.

5) Germany is a master of doing this type of destruction: I recall Germany from last World Cup as well. How they destroyed England 4-1. How they destroyed Messi's Argentina 4-0. And Portugal 4-0 in this World Cup (which easily could have been 6-0). So it was always a possibility of a 3-0 or 4-1 blowout against Brazil. What made it really worse was the absence of Neymar and Thiego Silva and the suicide mode of 15 mins when Brazil gave up those 4 goals.

Some interesting afterthought...
If Neymar was there, I think the score would be 5-3 or 6-3, given how exposed Germany's back line became in the beginning of the second half. It would be an exciting scoring feast until Germany would close it down when they start conceding goals. Germany's biggest weakness is their defense against flanked speedy attack and long balls which we saw in Ghana match. Brazil's full offense could have scored 3 goals easily (and of course Germany would counter attack and score more). But with Neymar out and Hulk and Fred taken out, it was painfully obvious how these other strikers are lacking the mental strength to push through for a goal. Oscar actually scored in the end from a tougher position than 3-4 other chances the rest of the strikers got in the first 15 mins of second half.

Finally, Brazil is actually improving overall since the super team of 2002! That is kind of hard to envision after a loss like that but consider this: in 2006 Brazil's much vaunted attack with Ronaldinho as the star midfielder only made to quarterfinals before being soundly beaten by France. In 2010 they self-destruct with Kakka and Co. to the Netherlands. This time I expected a repeat against a very skilled Columbia but they actually made it to the semis. They are also the confederation Cup champion from previous year. And their star striker has at least 2 more world cup in him.
With a good coach and some bruising experience like these, this team can go forward and do lot better. I believe it because like hundreds of millions all round the World I know Brazil always comes through and plays good futbol year after year, decade after decade even if they don't win it all the way through. I believe in Brazil.