Afghanistan won't ever be lost. They have everything in place.
A decent (by asian standards) administration? Yep.
Domestic structure? Yep (Like Ireland's has this will likely get FC/List A status very soon)
Massive fan following? Yep
Players? Yep = 200 full time cricketers in the country apparently, thousands more at lower levels. The country's poverty means that even a tiny wage is enough to make cricket a full time job.
Talent? Clearly, while the ages are a joke (Add 4-5 years to some I reckon) they keep producing talented players, and their batting has come on leaps and bounds
Coaches? Yep, just appointed Phil Simmons to assist
Genetics? Also yes, naturally they produce fast bowlers very easily.
There is zero doubt in Afghanistan's case, they will be a full member team, and in 10 years I reckon will easily be a top 8 side in each format. If they aren't a full member in 2 years I'd honestly be very surprised, especially since they'd have India's backing due to political reasons. (ACB would vote BCCI in every issue).
From my pov I'm hoping that in order to not upset the power balance currently the ICC will elevate 1 Asian and 1 European (us) to the top table to maintain the current voting balance, can't imagine ECB/CA/SA/NZCB would be happy with WI/ACB/SLCB/ZCB/BCB all being puppets of the BCCI on voting matters.
Course it all comes down to money as well. Thats the real issue. 2% of the big 3's budget being diverted to Ireland/Afghansitan would have such a massive impact on cricket there and make zero difference for the Big 3 but they're so greedy it likely won't happen